Waste management is one of the essential services provided by municipalities to their citizens. The Covid-19 pandemic, however, has created major challenges for municipal waste management. Hygiene and safety measures had to be introduced in waste collection and treatment systems, and the volume of waste streams, both household and industrial/commercial, has changed.

During lockdowns, people spend more time at home, cook more, shop online and declutter their homes. This results in large amounts of domestic waste at a time when some waste facilities have been forced to temporarily reduce their services.

In contrast, commercial and industrial activities slowed down at the start of the pandemic and the volume of industrial and commercial waste was therefore expected to decline accordingly.

The forecast was based on a waste balance sheet drawn up by the German Federal Statistical Office in 2017 and the classification of commercial waste by economic sector. The DGAW developed a ‘Covid factor’ to estimate the increase or decrease of waste streams from private households and from industry and commerce.

Various forecasts of German gross national product were used as indicators for commercial waste volume trajectories. The background is the correlation between commercial waste volumes and GDP.

After one year, in March 2021, the DGAW updated the forecast.

In the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the amount of waste remained largely unchanged in Germany. There was, however, a significant shift from industrial and commercial waste to municipal waste from private households and delivery services.

Litter in public spaces remains a problem for many municipalities, because takeaway meals and drinks and street vending have become more popular – despite the ban on single-use plastics. These waste volumes are not expected to drop to pre-pandemic levels.