The Covid-19 pandemic has significantly altered economic activities and people’s lifestyles. These changes also have a great impact on industrial, commercial and private waste volumes. It is important for municipal waste management companies to estimate changes in quantities and thus the utilisation of their facilities as early as possible.
Waste management is one of the essential services provided by municipalities to their citizens. The Covid-19 pandemic, however, has created major challenges for municipal waste management. Hygiene and safety measures had to be introduced in waste collection and treatment systems, and the volume of waste streams, both household and industrial/commercial, has changed.
During lockdowns, people spend more time at home, cook more, shop online and declutter their homes. This results in large amounts of domestic waste at a time when some waste facilities have been forced to temporarily reduce their services.
In contrast, commercial and industrial activities slowed down at the start of the pandemic and the volume of industrial and commercial waste was therefore expected to decline accordingly.
In May 2020, at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, the German Association for Waste Management (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Abfallwirtschaft e.V. – DGAW) issued a forecast of how the volumes of various waste streams would change during the crisis. One of the aims was to forecast the utilisation of the waste facilities.
The forecast was based on a waste balance sheet drawn up by the German Federal Statistical Office in 2017 and the classification of commercial waste by economic sector. The DGAW developed a ‘Covid factor’ to estimate the increase or decrease of waste streams from private households and from industry and commerce.
Various forecasts of German gross national product were used as indicators for commercial waste volume trajectories. The background is the correlation between commercial waste volumes and GDP.
After one year, in March 2021, the DGAW updated the forecast.
The DGAW expected a 5 per cent increase in household waste and a 4-6 per cent decrease in industrial and commercial waste. This resulted in an expected decrease of all waste streams of between 1.98 and 3.82 million tonnes.
The DGAW made its data available to its member companies and, via its website, to other German waste management companies and institutions. The trade press also reported on it several times. The forecast update in 2021 concluded that DGAW’s first estimate of municipal waste was very accurate. The DGAW expected household waste to increase by 5% and industrial and commercial waste to decrease by 7% (best case) and 10% (worst case) in line with GDP projections.
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In the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, the amount of waste remained largely unchanged in Germany. There was, however, a significant shift from industrial and commercial waste to municipal waste from private households and delivery services.
Litter in public spaces remains a problem for many municipalities, because takeaway meals and drinks and street vending have become more popular – despite the ban on single-use plastics. These waste volumes are not expected to drop to pre-pandemic levels.