In 1913 the first mass produced automobiles went down the Ford assembly line in Highland Park, Michigan. The large-scale introduction of motor vehicles triggered changes in a large and complex system that ultimately transformed not just transportation, but our sense of geography, the urban, and ultimately suburban, landscapes, manufacturing, agriculture, medicine, politics, education, and most other elements of society.

We stand now at the cusp of another revolution in mobility, and with the introduction of new forms of vehicles, power, control systems, and business architectures, the changes are likely to be as large and dynamic as those of a century ago. Identifying, studying and putting these complex forces into a perspective that can help inform the actions of the numerous elements of this system will be critical to maximizing the societal benefits of this revolution.

These changes are likely to be as unprecedented as those caused by the first wave of technologically enabled mobility, and likely as disruptive. Two things can be predicted, but they are not the things most technologists would like to be able to predict. First, nothing is certain in any complex adaptive system, the changes are dynamic and non-linear. And second, “progress” will be defined more by the economics of time and money; both in the movement of people and goods, than by any technological breakthrough.

With so much of the excitement about next generation mobility focusing on forms of autonomous vehicles, the future will be defined by much more than who, or what, is behind the wheel. Let’s take a look at some possible futures.

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